EQT – Testing Multi-Year Highs as Nat Gas Enters Strong Seasonal Window

EQT continues to show impressive strength, pushing into multi-year resistance near the 61–62 zone. For a stock that normally moves with the natural-gas cycle, the current breakout attempt stands out. The broader energy sector has lagged, yet EQT keeps grinding higher, powered by better volumes, improved balance-sheet positioning, and favorable winter seasonality in the gas market. This is one of the cleaner large-cap natural-gas setups on the board right now.

Technical Setup

The weekly chart is straightforward. EQT is pressing into major resistance from 2022 and early 2023 at around 61–62, with price clearing the prior swing high and holding above all key moving averages. Volume over price confirms heavy participation in the 30–48 zone, meaning the stock has already worked through its biggest congestion area. Above 61, there’s almost no overhead volume, creating a thin zone that favors continuation if buyers follow through.

Momentum is strong. Weekly MACD has crossed bullish and is pushing to the upside. On the daily, the TTM Squeeze fired long and continues expanding, showing sustained pressure behind the move. This is the kind of trend structure where pullbacks tend to be shallow because demand sits underneath the breakout.

Support sits around 56.30, then 52.90, with a deeper anchor around 48.70, which lines up with the point-of-control area on the volume profile.

Fundamentals and Seasonal Context

Fundamentally, EQT remains the largest natural-gas producer in the United States. Their balance-sheet cleanup during 2023–2024, ongoing cost discipline, and hedging strategy reduced downside risk during periods of volatile gas pricing. They benefit disproportionately during rising production spreads and winter demand spikes.

Seasonality also matters here. Natural gas typically strengthens from November through February, which often feeds into upstream producers. EQT tends to outperform its peer group during winter months and when storage draws accelerate. Even if spot gas prices stay within the 2.50–3.50 range, stronger winter demand and lower supply growth expectations help tighten the curve, which supports the stock’s bullish structure.

If natural gas pushes toward the upper end of its multi-month range, EQT typically responds with amplified upside because of its pure-play exposure.

The Trade

The chart favors trend continuation above 61. A clean breakout with volume could open room toward 65–68 in the short term and potentially retest prior highs in the low 70s. If the breakout fails, price has plenty of room to pull back toward 56 without breaking the larger trend. Traders looking for new entries may prefer waiting for a controlled dip to 57–58 rather than chasing highs, but the momentum-based structure does support continuation.

Full Disclosure: I am long common stock that I bought around the highs, thinking that EQT was breaking out. Hoping for the breakout this time around!

Disclaimer: This post is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here should be considered financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research and trade based on your own risk tolerance and strategy.